Probability and Impact Scale

• Probability
  • 1 – Unlikely: standard implementation, low uncertainty.
  • 2 – Possible: edge cases or partial unknowns worth investigation.
  • 3 – Likely: known issues, new integrations, or high ambiguity.
• Impact
  • 1 – Minor: cosmetic issues or easy workarounds.
  • 2 – Degraded: partial feature loss or manual workaround required.
  • 3 – Critical: blockers, data/security/regulatory exposure.
• Multiply probability × impact to derive the risk score.
  • 1–3: document for awareness.
  • 4–5: monitor closely, plan mitigations.
  • 6–8: CONCERNS at the gate until mitigations are implemented.
  • 9: automatic gate FAIL until resolved or formally waived.

Source: Murat risk model summary.